| There
have been reports of a third party being formed in TnT, but time
seems short for a new political group to make much inroads into
the support enjoyed by the two principal political parties.
The 50-year-old PNM seems confident of retaining political control
of TnT yet again.
Since the late Prime Minister Eric Williams founded the PNM in 1956,
the party has ruled TnT for 39 years of that period.
The PNM suffered its first defeat in 1986, when former PNM Deputy
Leader A.N.R. Robinson won power as leader of the broad-based National
Alliance for Reconstruction (NAR).
The PNM floundered badly when former government Minister Desmond
Cartey admitted in a hustings speech that “all ah we t’ief”.
Official corruption was a major issue in that election and Cartey’s
admission sunk the PNM, allowing the NAR to win by a landslide.
Robinson immediately introduced economic austerity measures which
affected the party’s popularity and Basdeo Panday, who had
served as the Foreign Minister, broke away from the NAR and founded
the UNC in 1988.
Panday, who enjoys much grassroot support, especially among the
East Indian community, railed against both the PNM and the NAR,
which came across as a rightwing PNM faction.
A former labour leader and actor, Panday used all his histrionic
skills to woo the electorate to support his UNC, which won the 1995
election by a very narrow margin after forming a coalition with
the NAR.
Five years later, the electorate returned the UNC to power by a
narrow margin.
Panday called new elections in 2001 and the UNC and the PNM finished
with 18 seats each.
President ANR Robinson broke the deadlock by asking PNM leader Manning
to form a goverment.
It was widely believed that Robinson gave Manning the nod because
of widespread allegations of high level corruption under UNC rule.
Corruption and the escalating crime rate remain major issues in
the run-up to the 2007 elections and many voters have expressed
doubts that either of the two parties has solutions to these problems.
Complicating the scenario is the enduring popularity among the poor
and underprivileged of the militant Muslim Jamaat al Muslimeen organisation,
headed by Imam Yasin Abu Bakr, which tried and failed to overthrow
the NAR Government by force in July, 1990.
Abu Bakr’s group represents a small minority in predominantly
Christian and Hindu Trinidad, but his appeal among the poor and
disadvantaged youth, gives him the ability to affect the election
outcome.
The appeal of Abu Bakr, who is now serving a jail term for inciting
sedition, is a factor that both major parties have to take into
account.
Another important factor is the ability of both parties to bring
out their supporters to vote on polling day and to win over undecided
voters.
Although figures are hard to come by, it is widely believed that
a large percentage of the middle class never bothers to vote, believing
that neither of the two major parties has their interests at heart.
Many of these voters backed the NAR in 2000 and many of them still
believe that the NAR was the cleanest government ever to rule TnT,
since not one single NAR official was ever accused of corruption.
In one of his famous calypsoes, the Mighty Sparrow sang that “we
like it so”, meaning that the voters opt to support the PNM
regardless of corruption charges.
While the corruption issues helped get the UNC elected in 1995,
the party has since lost its credibility given the number of corruption
charge filed against some of its leading members, including Panday.
Given the lack of a viable alternative, the next election might
again be reduced to a contest between TnT’s two major racial
groups, those of East Indian and African descent.
Many voters have expressed cynicism about the political scenario,
apparently believing that all the local political groups are corrupted,
so that they might as well support the one that represents their
racial group.
Racial politics has been a factor in TnT’s history since colonial
days.
Local politicians of White or Mixed race descent, dominated the
political scene during rule by the British, who gave many of them
positions of responsibility in the colonial government.
Dr. Williams, a charismatic popular scholar, won power by appealing
to the sentiments of Black and coloured voters.
Of Mixed race himself, his mother being part French Creole and Amerindian
and his father being mulatto, Dr. Williams often stressed the virtues
and achievements of some African states during his discourses at
the popular University of Woodford Square.
An ardent nationalist, Dr. Williams told political rallies that
“there should not be any more Mother India or Mother Africa
but only Mother Trinidad and Tobago.
At the same time, he sometimes referred to a “recalcitrant
minority” and this was widely interpreted to mean the East
Indian community.
Charging that they were being marginalised, the East Indians set
up their Democratic Labour Party (DLP) to challenge the PNM.
But this party floundered over the issue of leadership and was replaced
by the United Labour Front (ULF), which has also disappeared.
The current UNC crisis indicates that the East Indians have yet
to achieve the measure of unity they need to erode the PNM’s
political base.
Given Manning’s sinking popularity and the fact that the East
Indians now constitute the country’s largest single racial
group with about 40 per cent, the UNC should have had a clear road,
but their leadership problems and growing unease over crime and
corruption leave their future murky.
Although those of purely African descent now constitute only about
30 per cent of the population, the remaining 30 per cent who are
mixed or of other races must now decide whether to back the Africans
or the Indians.
Despite a growing clamour for unity, race still decides the outcome
of elections in TnT. |
